22.08.2014

NSR Administration published Official long-term ice forecasts issued by AARI on August 21, 2014 for the Arctic seas on the second half of navigation (September-October), 2014

The August bulletin of ice forecasts for the second half of the navigation period contains general information about the expected ice conditions in the Russian Arctic seas in the second half of navigation of 2014 (August – October). For an assessment of a background of ice conditions, the forecast is compared to mean annual value (the norm calculated for 1970-2010). The scheme of provision of ice massifs is given in fig. 1.

Fig. 1. Schematic map of borders and position of the main ice massifs in the Arctic seas

Fig. 2. The general assessment of expected type of ice conditions in the Arctic seas in the second half of navigation of 2014.

Kara Sea
In September and October total absence of solid ices of the Novozemelsky ice massif in southwest part of the sea is expected. In the second half of navigation in southwest part of the Kara Sea the easy type of ice conditions (fig. 2) is expected. The area of the Severozemelsky ice massif in the first decade of September is expected 8% (norm of 17%), in the third decade of September – 5% (norm of 11%). The square of the North Kara ice massif in the second decade of September is expected 10% (norm of 39%). In the second half of navigation in northeast part of the Kara Sea the average type of ice conditions with a tendency to easy (fig. 2) is expected. The beginning of a form of ice in the sea is expected for 4-5 days after mean annual terms: Dickson Island – on October 11 (norm on October 6), Russky Island – on October 1 (norm on September 27), Chelyuskin Cape – on September 27 (norm on September 22).

Laptev Sea
The area of the Taimyr ice massif in the first decade of September is expected 5% (norm of 32%), in the third decade of September – 5% (norm of 26%). In the second half of navigation in the western part of the sea the easy type of ice conditions (fig. 2) is expected. The area of the Yansky ice massif in the first decade of September is expected equal 0% (norm of 5%), in the third decade of September – 0% (norm of 2%). In the second half of navigation in east part of the sea the easy type of ice conditions (fig. 2) is expected. The beginning of a steady form of ice in the sea is expected for 10 days after mean annual terms: in the western part of the sea – on October 7 (norm on September 27), in east part of the sea – on October 12 (norm on October 2). The beginning of a steady form of ice on the main points is expected: Andrey Island – on October 5 (norm on September 25), Tiksi Bay – on October 9 (norm on October 4), Kigilyakh Cape – on October 10 (norm on October 1), Dmitry Lapteva Strait – on October 10, (norm on October 1), Sannikov Strait – on October 9 (norm on September 29).

East Siberian Sea
The area of the Novosibirsk ice massif in the first decade of September is expected 10% (norm of 17%), in the third decade of September – 5% (norm of 13%). In the second half of navigation in the western part of the sea the easy type of ice conditions (fig. 2) is expected. The area of the Ayonsky ice massif in the first decade of September is expected 30% (norm of 55%), in the third decade of September – 25% (norm of 51%). In the second half of navigation in east part of the sea the easy type of ice conditions (fig. 2) is expected. The beginning of a steady form of ice in the sea is expected for 10-12 days after mean annual terms: Shalaurov Cape – on October 10 (norm on September 30), Chetyrekhstolbovoy Island – on October 14 (norm on October 4), Shelagsky Cape – on October 18 (norm on October 6), Billings Cape – on October 15 (norm on October 3).

Chukchi Sea
The area of the Vrangelevsky ice massif in September is expected in the first decade of 0% (norm of 6%), in the third decade of 0% (norm of 6%). In the second half of navigation in southwest part of the sea the easy type of ice conditions (fig. 4) is expected. The beginning of a steady form of ice in De Long Strait and along the Chukchi coast is expected on the average for 15 days after mean annual terms: Schmidt Cape – on October 16 (norm on October 1), Wrangel Island – on October 22 (norm on October 7), Vankarem Cape – on October 21 (norm on October 6).

Source: Federal state Institution “The Northern Sea Route Administration” http://asmp.morflot.ru/en/dolgosrochnie_prognozi

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