23.03.2015

Long-term ice forecasts for the Arctic seas on the first half of navigation (June-August), 2015

The General assessment of the expected ice conditions in the Arctic seas in the first half of navigation (June-August)

St. Petersburg, March, 2015

The predictive bulletin includes general information about the expected ice conditions in the Russian Arctic seas in the first half of navigation (June-August), 2015. For an assessment of intensity of the expected development of ice conditions, the forecast is compared to mean annual values (the norm calculated from 1970 for 2010).

Kara Sea

The area of the Novozemelsky ice massif in June-August is expected 0-4% less than average long-term values (fig. 3): the third decade of June – 75%, norm of 75%; the third decade of July – 30%, norm of 34%; the first decade of August – 15%, norm of 18%. In the first half of navigation in southwest part of the Kara Sea the average type of ice conditions is expected.

The area of the Severozemelsky ice massif in July-August is expected 4-8% less than average long-term values: July – 60%, norm of 68%; August – 35%, norm of 39%. In the first half of navigation in northeast part of the Kara Sea the average type of ice conditions is expected.

Breaking of solder near Vilkitsky Strait is expected for 5 days before mean annual term – on July 25, norm on July 30.

Laptev Sea

The area of the Taimyr ice massif in July-August is expected 10-15% less than average long-term values July – 56%, norm of 71%; August – 33%, norm of 43%. In the first half of navigation in the western part of the sea the easy type of ice conditions is expected.

The area of the Yansky ice massif in July-August is expected 10-15% less than average long-term values: July – 62%, norm of 77%; August – 6%, norm of 16%. In the first half of navigation in east part of the sea the easy type of ice conditions is expected.

Breaking of solder along the coast in the western part of the sea is expected for 5 days before average long-term terms – on July 12, norm on July 17, in east part of the sea in terms close to averages long-term – on July 15, norm – on July 15. On the most important points breaking of solder is expected: the bay Tiksi – on July 12, norm on July 14, the cape Kigilyakh (the western ways to Dmitry Laptev Strait) – on July 17, norm on July 17, Sannikov Strait – on July 20, norm on July 21.

East Siberian Sea

The area of the Novosibirsk ice massif in July-August is expected 0-10% less than average long-term values: July – 81%, norm of 81%, August – 23%, norm of 33%. In the first half of navigation in the western part of the sea the average type of ice conditions is expected.

The area of the Ayonsky ice massif in July-August is expected 0-10% less than average long-term values: July – 87%, norm of 87%, August – 56%, norm of 66%. In the first half of navigation in east part of the sea the average type of ice conditions is expected. Breaking of solder in a throat of Chaun Bay (on a site Aion-Valkarkay) is expected for 5 days before average long-term value – on June 27, norm on July 2. In the first half of August the central type of provision of solid ices is most probable.

Chukchi Sea

The area of the Vrangelevsky ice massif in July-August is expected 5-7% less than average long-term values: July – 31% norm of 36%; August – 5%, norm of 12%. Breaking of solder on a coastal site the cape Yakan – the cape Vankar is expected for 10 days of earlier average long-term terms – on July 1, norm on July 10. In the first half of navigation in southwest part of the sea the easy type of ice conditions is expected.

Thus, in the first half of navigation in the Arctic seas the following type of ice conditions is expected:
The easy – in Barents, Laptevykh and Chukchi the seas;
The medium – in the Karsky and East Siberian seas;

On water areas of the Arctic seas in the first half of navigation it isn't expected realization of heavy type.

Forecasts are developed by the staff of laboratory of long-term ice forecasts of Federal State Budgetary Institution AANII. March 19, 2015. Director of AARI, Dr. I. Frolov
Source: Federal state Institution “The Northern Sea Route Administration” http://asmp.morflot.ru/en/dolgosrochnie_prognozi/

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